SA jobs and prices hang on US Agoa ruling Monday

South African workers, exporters and consumers stand at the centre of a decision to be made in Washington on Monday, when the US government announces the outcome of its annual review of the country’s eligibility for African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) benefits in 2027.

For the businesses and employees who depend on duty-free access to the world’s largest consumer market, the stakes are tangible. Agoa allows eligible African manufacturers to ship selected products, including vehicles, clothing and agricultural goods, into the US without tariffs. Trade, industry and competition minister Parks Tau told the National Economic Development and Labour Council on Thursday that South Africa had done all it could to secure the continuation of those benefits, and that the matter now rested with the US.

His message to the workers and business community who rely on the trade relationship was one of reassurance. “Whatever the outcome, our economy will remain stable, our exporters will keep trading, and the government stands ready to support our economy, particularly the hard-working SA business community and their employees, who are the backbone of our society and communities from which we all come,” Tau said.

The size of the relationship is considerable, and its effects reach deep into everyday economic life. Bilateral trade reached $28.8bn in 2025, and more than 600 US companies operate in South Africa, supporting about 134,600 jobs. Tau pointed to recent momentum in investment: “In the last year alone, more than $5bn in investment commitments have been made by US companies, demonstrating increased investor confidence.” He also highlighted South Africa’s role as a supplier of critical minerals, noting that the country supplies 12 of the 50 minerals the US considers critical, and said it was ready to partner on beneficiating them at source.

The February decision by President Donald Trump to approve a one-year extension of Agoa was largely viewed as temporary relief for the continent’s exporters, but it cast doubt on the durability of the 25-year-old trade preference programme. That uncertainty is what Monday’s ruling is meant to address.

Meanwhile, Tau said the government was confident the US would acknowledge, recognise and “favourably respond to the very generous offers that South Africa has made during our ongoing negotiations over the last year or so”. He framed the negotiations as serving the broader public good: “This is what is in the best interest of our two nations … as well as of partners in the African continent.”

The engagement has been intensive. Tau met US trade representative Jamieson Greer in Washington DC last month, in a meeting preceded by two rounds of discussions at senior officials’ level, where he said substantial progress on addressing the issues was made. Recently, two further rounds of senior officials’ talks were followed. South Africa, he said, remained committed to engagement, its doors remained open for dialogue, and the government had engaged constructively on all concerns raised by the US.

While the details of those proposals cannot yet be made public, Tau offered citizens a set of guarantees about the boundaries of any deal. “Every proposal respects due process, preserves our constitutional values and imperatives, is aligned with our obligations under World Trade Organisation rules, and reinforces our duty to protect animal health, local producers and SA consumers,” he said, adding that some principles were not up for negotiation. “Transformation is a constitutional and developmental imperative. Land reform operates within our Constitution and under the authority of our courts.”

The negotiations are playing out against a strained diplomatic backdrop. US ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III caused a stir recently by saying the US was running out of patience with South Africa over trade, land expropriation, foreign policy and bilateral relations. Relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply amid US claims of “white genocide” in South Africa, allegations the government has strongly rejected. Tau said it would not be appropriate to set out the detail of the proposals in public while engagement continues, and that these matters were best resolved through diplomatic and trade channels.

By contrast with the uncertainty in Washington, the government is working behind the scenes to widen the options available to South African producers, opening markets across the African Continental Free Trade Area, India, the Southern African Development Community, the EU, the UK, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China and Mercosur. Negotiations with the EU on cumulation have been concluded to protect hybrid and electric vehicle exports, an interim arrangement has been secured for steel, and new markets have opened for citrus, avocados, grapes and apples.

Whether that resilience will be enough may become clear on November 2. “South Africa will be ready, whatever is decided on November 2,” Tau said. “Our door to the US remains open, our economy is resilient, our exporters are resourceful, and this government stands behind them.”