Stats SA to publish rebased GDP estimates on Thursday

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD | Stats SA to rebase GDP data on Thursday

Thursday is the heaviest statistical delivery of the week, when Statistics South Africa publishes rebased and benchmarked GDP estimates alongside restated provincial GDP figures. The exercise runs every five years in line with international standards and best practice. Its purpose is practical: to keep GDP measurement reflective of the South African economy and relevant amid structural changes over time.

Rebasing changes the reference year for constant-price estimates in the national accounts. Benchmarking, by contrast, involves improvements in data, classifications and methodologies for compiling those accounts. Together they fold major shifts in the structure of the economy into GDP calculations, giving policymakers, investors and planners a more accurate picture of what the economy actually produces. How the revised numbers land will matter for every forecast built on the old series.

Stats SA has a full schedule beyond Thursday. On Wednesday the agency publishes international tourism numbers for September. The previous report showed visitor numbers rising 1.4% to just more than 1-million between July and August, a 7.4% increase over the same period in 2025. Tourists from the Southern African Development Community, who traditionally spend less than their overseas counterparts, again dominated arrivals. Later that day the agency releases a report on governance, public safety and justice.

Thursday also carries producer inflation data for September, and the operational picture there is one of persistent cost pressure. In August, inflation at the factory gate slowed further to 5% from 5.7% in July. Two consecutive annual slowdowns, yet the rate is likely to stay fairly high for the rest of the year, reflecting input costs driven mainly by the price of fuel as the US war against Iran continues. Nedbank, in its weekly commentary, expects the producer price index to accelerate to 5.3% year on year in September, likely driven mainly by the coke and petroleum products category. The bank noted that oil prices traded above $100 per barrel as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts trade through the Strait of Hormuz and global inventories reach multi-decade lows.

The week opens on Tuesday with the South African Reserve Bank publishing composite business cycle indicators for August. The leading business cycle indicator retreated for a second month in July, and the bank analyses the leading indicator together with the coincident and lagging indicators to determine turning points in the business cycle. Also on Tuesday, corporate and investment bank RMB launches its “Where to Invest in Africa 2026|2027” report, featuring in-depth analysis of macroeconomic developments, investment attractiveness rankings and individual country performance snapshots, and highlighting opportunities and growth prospects across the continent.

Wednesday brings a reform-focused delivery update of a different kind. Business Leadership South Africa gives its Reform Tracker quarterly update, providing an overview of South Africa’s reform progress and examining what remains critical to unlocking sustainable economic growth. The update explores what it will take to translate progress into sustained growth as the country’s reform trajectory begins to turn a corner. Stuart Theobald, executive chair of financial services, research and advisory firm Krutham, will provide context and insights into the tracker’s findings, assessing developments across the governance, criminal justice and economic sectors.

On Thursday, Stats SA also publishes a report on capital expenditure by the public sector in 2025, followed by another on the financial statistics of higher education institutions in the same year, adding to an unusually dense run of statistical releases from the agency.

Friday closes the week with two delivery checkpoints. The National Treasury briefs the media on the second-quarter progress report on Operation Vulindlela, a joint initiative of the department and the presidency aimed at driving the implementation of structural reforms to support more rapid and inclusive economic growth. The briefing will provide an overview of progress made to date, highlight reform milestones and outline the economic implications and opportunities arising from the reform agenda. Later that day, the South African Revenue Service publishes preliminary trade data for September, after the surplus widened slightly to R20.5bn in August.

The full economic calendar is set out in the Business Day preview at https://www.businessday.co.za/economy/2026-10-26-economic-week-ahead-stats-sa-to-rebase-gdp-data-on-thursday/ for readers tracking each release as it lands. Will the rebased series change the picture forecasters have been working with all year?