Johannesburg's Water Crisis Puts ANC's Grip on City in Real Peril
Service failures and political uncertainty shape municipal race in South Africa's largest city
For 4.8 million Johannesburg residents who have watched their water run dry and their rubbish pile up uncollected, the November 4 local-government elections carry an unusually direct weight. The city’s service failures are not abstract. They are daily. And the political contest now forming around them is genuinely close.
An Ipsos survey shows the African National Congress holding 31% voter support in Johannesburg, with the Democratic Alliance at 28%, according to results posted on the research firm’s website. The margin is narrow enough to keep the outcome uncertain. Five years ago, when residents last voted in municipal elections, the ANC took 33.6% and the DA 26.5%, so both parties have moved, and the gap between them has tightened.
The city’s distress is the backdrop against which those numbers must be read. Water supply has become unreliable. Garbage collection has faltered. Public anger has been sustained and visible. The financial mismanagement underlying these breakdowns proved serious enough that the National Treasury took the extraordinary step of temporarily suspending funding to the municipality, a signal of how deep the crisis runs.
That context makes the mayoral race one of the most consequential contests in the coming election. The DA has put forward Helen Zille, the former mayor of Cape Town, as its candidate to lead Johannesburg. The ANC has not yet named its nominee.
Ipsos identified Johannesburg alongside Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City as metropolitan areas likely to see particularly competitive races between the two major parties. The polling picture grows more complicated, though, when other surveys enter the frame. A poll conducted last month by a research firm whose senior staff includes former DA officials produced starkly different results: the ANC at just 18% and the DA at 42%. That gap directly contradicts the Ipsos findings and underscores how much uncertainty still surrounds voter intentions. More details on this polling are available at https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/south-african-poll-shows-anc-leading-in-johannesburg-before-vote/
Meanwhile, in Cape Town, the DA faces a different kind of pressure. The party has governed the city for years and held it up as a model of effective municipal administration. The Ipsos survey shows the DA at 46%, ahead of the ANC at 26%, but that figure represents a significant fall from the DA’s 58.2% support in the 2021 municipal election. The party has dropped below the threshold needed for an outright majority, threatening its control of a city it has long presented as proof of its capacity to deliver services. The DA’s economic strategy in Cape Town has centered on a R40 billion (approximately $2.5 billion) three-year basic infrastructure investment program and the cultivation of a business-friendly environment.
The sharpest shift in the polling data comes from eThekwini, the metropolitan area encompassing Durban and its major port. Former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party is polling at 55%, a level of support that would deliver majority control of the municipality. MK stands substantially ahead of both the DA at 17% and the ANC at 10%. Ipsos identifies MK as currently the only party showing dominant-level support in any metropolitan municipality. For residents of eThekwini, that would represent a decisive change in who governs their city. It would also consolidate MK’s position in KwaZulu-Natal, where the party emerged as the dominant force in the 2024 general elections, capturing 45.4% of the provincial vote ahead of the Inkatha Freedom Party and the ANC.
Ipsos conducted the survey among 3,600 South Africans during June and July, with results weighted and projected to represent the eligible voter population. The firm was careful to note that these figures should not be read as predictions of final outcomes, and that voter support can shift substantially over two months of campaigning. The margin of error varies by area, reaching a maximum of 5.57 percentage points for Johannesburg, 6.12 for Cape Town, and 6.86 for eThekwini.
Whether the residents of Johannesburg, still waiting for reliable water and cleared streets, will ultimately break toward the incumbent or the challenger is a question the polling, for now, cannot answer.
Q&A
What daily service failures are Johannesburg residents experiencing?
Water supply has become unreliable and garbage collection has faltered, affecting 4.8 million residents who have watched their water run dry and rubbish pile up uncollected.
How close is the mayoral race between the ANC and DA in Johannesburg?
According to Ipsos polling, the ANC holds 31% voter support and the DA holds 28%, a margin narrow enough to keep the outcome uncertain, compared to five years ago when the ANC had 33.6% and the DA had 26.5%.
What signal did the National Treasury send about Johannesburg's crisis?
The National Treasury took the extraordinary step of temporarily suspending funding to the municipality, indicating how deep the financial mismanagement and service crisis runs.
Who is the DA's mayoral candidate for Johannesburg?
The DA has put forward Helen Zille, the former mayor of Cape Town, as its candidate to lead Johannesburg, while the ANC has not yet named its nominee.