Voters in South Africa’s largest cities are heading toward a genuine contest, and for millions of ordinary residents, the outcome will determine who fixes their roads, collects their refuse, and keeps the lights on. The latest Ipsos Pulse of the People omnibus survey, released Friday, 4 September, sketches a fractured political landscape where traditional power holders are losing ground in urban centers while new challengers gain traction in specific regions.
In Johannesburg, the African National Congress holds a narrow edge at 31 percent against the Democratic Alliance’s 27 percent. The race tightens considerably in Tshwane, where the DA pulls ahead with 31 percent to the ANC’s 22 percent. Four metropolitan areas show similarly competitive dynamics: Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City all feature close contests between the two major parties. The picture diverges sharply in eThekwini, where the uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, commands 55 percent of those surveyed. For residents of that city, the question is less who wins than by how much.
Additional reference context is available at https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-09-04-anc-and-da-in-dead-heat-across-key-metros-as-mk-dominates-ethekwini/.
Nationally, the ANC holds 31 percent support, the DA 25 percent, and MK has solidified itself as South Africa’s third force at 14 percent. The Economic Freedom Fighters follow at 11 percent, Action SA at 6 percent, the Inkatha Freedom Party at 3 percent, and the Patriotic Alliance at 2 percent. Both the DA and PA dispute these figures, claiming Ipsos under-polls their actual support.
The survey included 3,500 in-home respondents asked whether they would vote if an election were held tomorrow. Examined by province rather than metro, the results reveal a starkly different picture. The ANC’s urban retreat appears complete, its strongholds having moved decisively into rural territory: the party polled highest in Limpopo at 58 percent and the Eastern Cape at 56 percent. The DA dominates the Western Cape as expected but has emerged larger than the ANC in a second province, the Free State, a region struggling with severe service delivery failures. For Free State residents already living with those failures, that shift carries a pointed meaning.
Meanwhile, Mari Harris, Ipsos director of public affairs and political analyst, characterized the coming two months as a period of intense contestation across nearly every province. “The DA is doing well in the Western Cape (as expected), but in other provinces, it needs a good campaign to reap results,” Harris said. “MK features strongly in KZN, but not anywhere else in the country; the EFF is making inroads into Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape features well in the stronghold of Limpopo. Action SA comes through strongly in Gauteng; the IFP features well in KZN but not anywhere else, and the PA is a factor in the Western Cape.”
The Social Research Foundation has conducted its own polling in Johannesburg using phone surveys of urban residents, finding the DA ahead there, though its sample size is smaller than Ipsos’ work.
With the November 4 local government election two months away, Harris emphasized that parties retain meaningful capacity to shape outcomes through voter mobilization. Historically, turnout favors opposition parties on local election day, while incumbent supporters show lower motivation to cast ballots. “Voter turnout for incumbents is lower on local election polling day, while opposition voters are more motivated to go out and make their X,” Harris noted. That dynamic matters most to the residents of contested metros, where a few percentage points separate parties and where the winner will control budgets, appointments, and service delivery for the next term.
One encouraging sign in the data is rising intention to vote, particularly in metropolitan areas, even as voter registration numbers fell short of expectations. Harris cautioned that the overall trend remains concerning. The proportion of registered voters indicating they will not participate carries direct implications for every would-be councillor seeking office, and for every household waiting on a functioning municipality.
According to Ipsos, the margin of error for the overall registered voter sample stands at a maximum of plus or minus 1.77 percent at a 95 percent confidence level with a 50 percent response rate. When smaller provincial and metropolitan samples are analyzed separately, margins of error increase substantially, meaning some findings should be regarded as indicative only.
Whether rising urban turnout intention translates into actual votes cast on November 4 may ultimately decide which party controls the councils that govern daily life for South Africa’s city residents.