Extreme Weather Looms as Powerful El Niño Builds Across Southern Africa

Southern Africa’s summer is shaping up to be anything but ordinary. Climate experts are warning that an unusually early and potent El Niño is already underway, with intensity expected to build between October and January 2027 in ways that could reshape daily life across the region.

The ENSO Reference Group, made up of researchers and specialists from South African institutions and agencies, confirmed in its August assessment that a very strong El Niño remains on track for the austral summer season. What sets this event apart is its timing. Warming in the Niño 3.4 region, a key metric for tracking El Niño development, has started earlier than historical patterns typically show. University of Pretoria modelling projects peak intensity between October and January, while Pacific observations are already recording unusually elevated sea surface temperatures.

For ordinary people across southern Africa, that matters. El Niño and its counterpart La Niña represent the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern centered in the tropical Pacific that sends weather ripples across the globe. When a strong El Niño arrives, the consequences on the ground can range from failed harvests to disrupted water supplies, hitting farmers, families, and rural communities hardest.

By contrast, the science of predicting exactly how those consequences will unfold remains stubbornly uncertain. The reference group was direct on this point: each El Niño carries its own signature, shaped by ocean-atmosphere interactions that vary from one occurrence to the next. Pacific warming alone does not determine what any given community will face. Other oceanic and atmospheric processes can either amplify or soften local impacts, making it impossible to simply borrow lessons from previous strong events.

“All the above metrics demonstrate the unusual nature of this El Niño event with earlier than average warming in the Niño 3.4 region and global average records of global average SSTs being reported,” the group noted. It cautioned that this complexity “can contribute to the amplification or amelioration of the local impacts, resulting in a significant degree of uncertainty with regard to forecasts of the impacts of the ENSO, including this 2026 El Niño.”

A clearer picture is expected on 10 September, when experts gather for the 2026/2027 El Niño summit. That briefing will cover how the El Niño is developing, how it is already showing up in current weather patterns, and what impacts the region should prepare for. The reference group will also examine extreme weather at the margins of the winter season, the unusually dry July recorded in the winter rainfall region, and recent extreme summer conditions observed in the northern hemisphere.

The reference group will continue issuing formal updates as the season progresses. More information on the forecast is available at https://mg.co.za/the-green-guardian/2026-08-29-very-strong-el-nino-forecast-for-southern-africa-this-summer/

The combination of early warming, record-breaking sea surface temperatures, and genuine uncertainty about regional outcomes leaves an open question that will define the months ahead: whether this El Niño’s unusual early start translates into the kind of severe local impacts that communities across southern Africa have little margin to absorb.