Thousands of residents across Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape continue to face disproportionately high risks of murder, rape and carjacking, according to quarterly crime statistics released by the South African Police Service on Friday. The data covers April through June 2026, the first quarter of the 2026/27 financial year, and shows national declines in serious violent crime alongside a persistent geographic concentration that leaves people in those four provinces far more exposed than those living elsewhere in the country.
The raw numbers tell one story. Gauteng recorded 1,276 murders during the quarter, the highest absolute count in the country and nearly a quarter of all murders reported nationally. But for residents of the Eastern Cape, the per-capita figures are grimmer still: a murder rate of 15.8 per 100,000 people, more than double Gauteng’s 7.4 per 100,000. The Western Cape followed at 13.9 per 100,000, and KwaZulu-Natal at 9.8 per 100,000. Nationally, the murder count fell 5.9% compared with the same quarter last year, dropping from 5,770 to 5,427 cases.
Rape statistics reveal a similar pattern. KwaZulu-Natal reported the most cases, 1,820 incidents over the three months, accounting for nearly one in five rape cases recorded across the country. Gauteng followed with 1,666 cases, the Eastern Cape with 1,476, and the Western Cape with 1,106. SAPS recorded 9,201 rape cases nationally, a slight decline of 32 cases year-over-year. Measured per capita, the Eastern Cape again carries the heaviest burden at 22.3 cases per 100,000 people, followed by the Northern Cape at 20.7 and Free State at 19.8. Gauteng, despite its large absolute numbers, recorded the lowest rape rate among major provinces at 9.6 per 100,000 people, a consequence of its substantially larger population base.
Carjacking is where the geographic concentration becomes sharpest. Gauteng accounted for 2,207 of the 3,811 carjackings reported nationally during the quarter, 57.9% of all incidents. That figure dwarfs every other province. The Western Cape recorded 548 incidents, KwaZulu-Natal 481. At the other end of the scale, the Northern Cape logged just five carjackings. Nationally, carjacking fell 18.2% compared with the same period last year, down from 4,657 incidents.
By contrast, residents in provinces such as Limpopo, the Northern Cape and Free State live with markedly lower exposure. Limpopo recorded 161 murders and 46 carjackings during the quarter, alongside the country’s lowest murder rate at 2.6 per 100,000 people. The Northern Cape reported just 52 murders and 5 carjackings, while Free State recorded 156 murders and 27 carjackings. Detailed crime data is available at https://iol.co.za/news/crime-and-courts/2026-08-28-crime-stats-these-are-the-provinces-with-highest-murder-rape-and-carjacking-in-sa/
The national picture has improved. Murders, rapes, robberies with aggravating circumstances and carjackings all declined compared with the same quarter last year. For the millions of people living in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape, however, those national averages offer limited comfort. The four provinces together account for the overwhelming majority of the country’s most serious violent offences, and the gap between their residents’ daily reality and that of people elsewhere in South Africa remains wide.
Whether the quarterly declines represent a durable trend or a temporary dip is the question SAPS’s next reporting cycle will need to answer.