Migrants Fuel South Africa's Growth, Data Shows; Public Fear Doesn't Match Reality

In brief

Econometric studies show immigrants generate jobs and contribute significantly to South Africa's GDP, contradicting widespread public fears about their economic impact. Research from the World Bank and OECD demonstrates measurable benefits, yet public perception remains skeptical of these findings.

Key takeaways

Immigrant communities in South Africa contribute nine percent of GDP and raise per capita income by five percent, according to OECD research across ten middle-income countries.
Each immigrant in South Africa generates an average of two jobs, according to World Bank analysis, challenging the widespread belief that migrants drive unemployment.
Public anxieties about immigrants being sources of crime or straining public services lack substantiation in available research data.
The gap between public perception and econometric evidence shapes real policy decisions affecting resource allocation, community policing, and political messaging.
Ordinary South Africans competing in labor markets or living alongside immigrant communities face a disconnect between their daily assumptions and what measurable indicators demonstrate.

People

Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo

Organizations

Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
World Bank
OECD

Business & Economy

Migrants Fuel South Africa's Growth, Data Shows; Public Fear Doesn't Match Reality

Research reveals immigrants boost South Africa's economy and job creation.

By Claudette Joubert Published July 29, 2026

Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo has spent years tracking what the numbers actually say about immigration in South Africa. Her conclusion, drawn from major econometric studies, cuts against one of the country’s most persistent public anxieties: that migrants take more than they give.

Mbiyozo, a senior research consultant on migration at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), points to two bodies of research as the foundation for her findings. The World Bank determined that each immigrant in South Africa generates an average of two jobs. Separately, the OECD conducted research in 2018 comparing data from ten middle-income countries, examining how immigrants affect labor markets, government revenues, and gross domestic product. That study found immigrants contribute nine percent of South Africa’s GDP and raise per capita income by five percent.

The figures are not estimates drawn from surveys or anecdote. Speaking to VOC News, Mbiyozo described the methodology as resting on heavy econometric models, with the World Bank analysis providing the baseline for job creation figures and the OECD research offering comparative perspective across economies at similar development stages. Together, they build a quantitative case that is difficult to dismiss.

What the research challenges, specifically, is the cluster of beliefs that have taken hold in everyday public conversation. The claim that migrants are the primary driver of unemployment does not align with available data. Assertions that immigrants are the main source of crime, or that they place disproportionate strain on public services, cannot be substantiated by the evidence the study examined. These are not minor corrections to public perception. They go to the heart of how South Africans talk about their neighbors, their job prospects, and their communities.

Mbiyozo’s broader argument is straightforward: migration policy and public conversation should be anchored in reliable data, not perception or isolated incident. The gap between what people believe and what research demonstrates is wide enough to matter for real decisions, including how resources are allocated, how communities are policed, and how politicians frame the issue ahead of elections.

For ordinary South Africans living alongside immigrant communities, or competing in the same labor market, the research offers a different frame. Immigrants, the data suggests, are not a drain on the economy they share. They are, by measurable indicators, expanding it.

Whether that finding reaches the people whose daily assumptions it contradicts remains the open question.

Q&A

What do World Bank and OECD studies conclude about immigrants' economic contribution in South Africa?

The World Bank found each immigrant generates an average of two jobs. The OECD research from 2018 found immigrants contribute nine percent of South Africa's GDP and raise per capita income by five percent.

What public beliefs about immigrants does the research challenge?

The research contradicts claims that migrants are the primary driver of unemployment, the main source of crime, or place disproportionate strain on public services. These beliefs do not align with available data.

Who is Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo and what is her role?

Mbiyozo is a senior research consultant on migration at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) who has spent years analyzing econometric studies on immigration in South Africa.

What does Mbiyozo argue should anchor migration policy and public conversation?

Mbiyozo argues that migration policy and public conversation should be anchored in reliable data rather than perception or isolated incidents, as the gap between belief and research evidence affects real decisions on resource allocation and community policing.